Every year the Brethren announce how many convert baptisms occurred during the last year. The number consistently falls around 250,000. Approximately 50,000 missionaries (soon to temporarily dramatically increase) translates to about 5 converts per year per missionary.
These numbers are surprisingly consistent with numbers from my mission more than a decade ago. We always thought we were a low baptizing mission but it turns out we were just average.
Recently I have been pondering on these convert baptisms. Who are these people? What kind of lives have they led? What circumstances in their lives caused them to actually listen and follow the teachings of the missionaries as opposed to just slamming the door?
Based on my own experiences from my mission, many convert baptisms are over-age 8 children of less-active members. The white handbook listed in descending order the most effective methods for finding new converts. Part member and less active families were near the top of the list.
Also on the list was funerals. I can only assume people going through a tremendous loss in their life may be more open to a message of seeing their loved one again.
But that brings up an interesting question. Is it ethical or even moral to capitalize on someone's distressed state of mind to get them to convert?
For example, early on in my mission the bishop of the ward complained to us that we "were only baptizing crazy people." He admonished us to "go find some normal people to convert." At the time I accepted his counsel and resolved to seek out people of sound mind and who could be contributors to the local ward. Unfortunately, my efforts went unrewarded. We just couldn't find any fully functioning, financially sufficient individual who would listen to us. At the time I attributed it to the fact it was a wealthy area and they were all too proud to need God.
Another story relevant to this question is from a person close to me who served a mission in the United States. This individual related an instance where the missionaries baptized an individual but discovered a problem when they submitted the paperwork. This person had already been baptized about 6 years earlier! The individual relating the story was overwhelmed at what an amazing church we have that someone could be baptized, leave the church, and then be re baptized and the church could immediately see their previous baptism. What a marvel of technology and how organized and good record keepers the church is!!!
I looked at the situation and thought, "Is this the best convert the church can convince to join? Someone who was already baptized but either forgot or saw it as being of such little consequence as to not even mention it to the missionaries?"
Either this convert is not all there or he is extremely uncommitted. Either way, there's not much the church can do with such an individual. He will inevitably be yet another "high maintenance, low yield" member.
I must say at this point I am not knocking converts. One of my parents was an adult convert to the church. Many good members of the church come from converts. But more and more in recent years, "normal" people are not too interested in the Mormon church. Either they do a little research online and discover the church is not what it claims to be or else they are solid, functioning individuals with no need for the rigid structure and dogma of Mormonism.
I firmly believe this is going to become an ever increasing problem for the Mormon church. Life-long members of the church will be the major resource for the stabilizing, contributing members necessary for running the organization.
The global missionary effort is not to gain converts ( if that really is the singular objective, the church is failing in dramatic fashion ) but rather to further retain existing members who would otherwise leave the church. A two year stint dedicating your life to the church is a powerful tool for conditioning ones mind to maintain that same allegiance over the course of the rest of your life.
The brethren know this and so they lowered the missionary age to get boys on missions before they have a chance to drift away from the church. So really, one could look at this dramatic uptick in the number of missionaries to be a dramatic increase in lifelong, tithe paying members. At least, I'm sure that's what the brethren are hoping.
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